Real estate or will enter metaphase to adjust house price to will turn to drop t

From;    Author:Stand originally

◇ real-estate industry is to have demand first vacant, have capital shortage next, accordingly, pure loosen money " help city " step cannot be taken.

At present the price adjusts ◇ still inadequate, the market still is awaiting the publicity of house price and price to drop, is not block cloak attack by surprise covert drop means.

◇ estate market is being entered inevitably adjust level, house price also will be faced with 10 years to come from rise for a long time continuously the turning point that trend metaphase drops publicly.

Gap of real estate financing will amount to 673 billion yuan this year, change the state of gap of negative last year capital. The gap of supply and demand of real-estate industry capital that the task group that forms by Wei of Wei of bell of research center of banking of Beijing Normal University, the Kingdom of Wei, Wang Jing makes analyses a report to show, house price faces the turning point that drops publicly inside metaphase, the possibility that real-estate industry is immersed in metaphase to adjust is larger.

Capital supply still can be tightened up further

This task group estimates, 2008 the financing gap of real-estate industry is 673 billion yuan, relatively negative 2007 financing gap has apparent change, the characteristic with close hasten of real-estate industry capital is in second half of the year began to be reflected centrally 2008. But the report thinks at the same time, capital supply and demand is put in breach, do not mean undertake noting endowment the problem that can solve the existence inside the industry, the key that real-estate industry experience adjusts is appearing at demand wait-and-see with atrophy.

The report shows, at present estate development company fundses raised by oneself add fast rise faster, bank development loan is added fast tighten up somewhat, but sale beforehand gathering and mortgage loan to add fast drop considerably. It is in order to mortgage loan exemple, loan is added fast drop and do not depend on " 2 flatlet are borrowed " of policy tighten up, mortgage application to reject to lead rise or mortgage loan interest rate go up, and number of application an administrative unit in Xizang is mortgaged to drop apparently in what accept at the bank. "Demand atrophy and capital take up are adumbrative real estate began to enter adjust period, what this process may compare forecast is more endless " .

The report thinks, real-estate industry is to have demand first vacant, have capital shortage next, accordingly, pure loosen money " help city " step cannot be taken. Increase industry capital supply to cannot turn round macroscopical economy declining tendency, also cannot turn round be in wait-and-see the demand with atrophy, the market is adjusted have its immanent rhythm and cycle, because this estate fund furnishs,still can tighten up further.
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